🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Nice cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Marseille.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nice beat Marseille 2-0 at Allianz Riviera, Regular Season - 19, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nice 1.52 xG and Marseille 1.89 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Marseille landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nice attack 1.31 / defence 0.99 against Marseille attack 1.48 / defence 0.78, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nice 29% | Draw 26% | Marseille 45%, with Marseille to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Nice win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nice 48%, Marseille 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nice's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

Marseille's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nice 1.63 PPG, Marseille 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nice win broke the near-deadlock. Nice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Marseille (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.76 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights