🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Nice edge out Lyon 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nice beat Lyon 3-2 at Allianz Riviera, Regular Season - 8, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nice 1.38 xG and Lyon 1.09 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Nice beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lyon outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nice attack 0.96 / defence 0.86 against Lyon attack 1.04 / defence 0.88, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nice 43% | Draw 27% | Lyon 30%, with Nice to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nice 58%, Lyon 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nice's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Lyon's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nice 1.66 PPG, Lyon 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nice win broke the near-deadlock. Nice (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.10 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lyon (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights