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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Nice and Lens share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Allianz Riviera, Regular Season - 32, as Nice and Lens drew 1-1 in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nice 1.36 xG and Lens 2.12 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Lens landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nice attack 0.82 / defence 1.33 against Lens attack 1.22 / defence 1.12, drawn from 65/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nice 23% | Draw 23% | Lens 54%, with Lens to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nice 55%, Lens 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nice's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Lens's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nice 1.41 PPG, Lens 1.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights