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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Nice and Le Havre share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Allianz Riviera, Regular Season - 29, as Nice and Le Havre drew 1-1 in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nice 1.36 xG and Le Havre 1.25 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nice attack 0.82 / defence 1.45 against Le Havre attack 0.73 / defence 1.13, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nice 39% | Draw 27% | Le Havre 34%, with Nice to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nice 58%, Le Havre 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nice's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Le Havre's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nice 1.40 PPG, Le Havre 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Nice (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights