Nice vs Estac Troyes – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Nice (62%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Nice face Estac Troyes.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Allianz Riviera plays host to Nice versus Estac Troyes in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Saturday 28 November 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Nice (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Nice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nice's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 games at Allianz Riviera this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Estac Troyes have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Estac Troyes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Estac Troyes away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Nice's favour (1.70 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Nice 3W, Estac Troyes 1W, 0D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Apr 2023, ended 1–0 with Nice winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Nice half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Estac Troyes half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nice 60% versus Estac Troyes 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nice 54% | Estac Troyes 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nice 1.87 xG and Estac Troyes 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nice attack 1.117 / defence 0.949 | Estac Troyes attack 0.628 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 1.627 / away 1.318. Data: 43 Nice games / 9 Estac Troyes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nice 62% | Draw 24% | Estac Troyes 14%. Fair-value odds: Nice 1.61 | Draw 4.17 | Estac Troyes 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Nice (62%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Nice as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Nice 70% | Estac Troyes 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nice vs Estac Troyes | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Allianz Riviera • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Nov 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nice 62% | Draw 24% | Estac Troyes 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 47% | xG Nice 1.87 / Estac Troyes 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Nice attack 1.117 / def 0.949 | Estac Troyes attack 0.628 / def 1.030 | league avg home 1.627 / away 1.318 • Poisson stance: Nice (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Nice xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Estac Troyes xG
47%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nice vs Estac Troyes kick off?
Nice vs Estac Troyes is scheduled to kick off at 19:45 on Saturday 28 November 2026 at Allianz Riviera.
Where is Nice vs Estac Troyes being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Riviera.
What competition is Nice vs Estac Troyes part of?
Nice vs Estac Troyes is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nice vs Estac Troyes?
Our statistical model gives Nice a 62% chance of winning, Estac Troyes a 14% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Nice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nice vs Estac Troyes?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Nice and Estac Troyes will score (BTTS).
Will Nice vs Estac Troyes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Estac Troyes?
Record (4 meetings): Nice 3W | Draws 0 | Estac Troyes 1W.
What form are Nice and Estac Troyes in?
Nice (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Estac Troyes (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Nice's attack rating (1.12) and Estac Troyes's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.87 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Estac Troyes's attack (0.63x) against Nice's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 43/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 1-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nice Win
62%
1.61
24%
4.16
14%
7.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Nice xG
Total xG
2.66
0.79
Estac Troyes xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
7.16
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
15%
6.50
Win to Nil
28%
3.54
2%
46.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 10.3 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 9.7 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.7 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nice vs Estac Troyes?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Nice and Estac Troyes expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Nice and 0.79 for Estac Troyes, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Nice vs Estac Troyes?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Nice's recent record stands at 11W 14D 18L from 43 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Nice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Estac Troyes, meanwhile, have gone 22W 9D 12L across 43 games — 1.74 PPG, with L-L-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Estac Troyes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Estac Troyes by 0.65 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Nice heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Nice have managed 7W 10D 4L from 21 games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Estac Troyes's away record stands at 7W 7D 7L across 21 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.74 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Estac Troyes's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Nice are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Estac Troyes are on 1.56 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nice have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nice
Blended
Estac Troyes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nice and Estac Troyes in coming into this match?
Nice have gone 11W 14D 18L in their last 43 games (1.09 PPG), while Estac Troyes have gone 22W 9D 12L in their last 43 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nice at home or Estac Troyes away?
Nice's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nice at home: 1.48 PPG; Estac Troyes away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Nice or Estac Troyes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nice have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Estac Troyes in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Nice go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nice have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Estac Troyes — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Nice
0
Draws
1
Estac Troyes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Estac Troyes?
From 4 meetings on record, Nice have won 3, Estac Troyes have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Nice and Estac Troyes last play each other?
They last met on 30 April 2023, when Estac Troyes 0-1 Nice.
Who has won more matches between Nice and Estac Troyes?
Nice have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Estac Troyes see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nice 62%, Estac Troyes 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Nice) and 43% (Estac Troyes).
On the defensive side: Estac Troyes in 33%; Nice have failed to score in 29% of games; Estac Troyes in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nice home games / Estac Troyes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nice play Estac Troyes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Nice's recent matches and 43% of Estac Troyes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nice vs Estac Troyes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Nice's recent games and 43% of Estac Troyes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nice and Estac Troyes tend to score early?
Nice have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Estac Troyes in 48% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.