🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Stalemate at Nantes's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau, Regular Season - 31, as Nantes and Toulouse drew 0-0 in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nantes 1.20 xG and Toulouse 1.21 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Nantes fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Toulouse landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nantes attack 0.86 / defence 0.81 against Toulouse attack 1.05 / defence 0.93, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nantes 36% | Draw 28% | Toulouse 37%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nantes 47%, Toulouse 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nantes's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Toulouse's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nantes 1.00 PPG, Toulouse 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Nantes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line. Toulouse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights