🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Nantes and Stade Brestois 29 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stade de la Beaujoire, Regular Season - 30, as Nantes and Stade Brestois 29 drew 1-1 in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nantes 1.43 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.33 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nantes attack 0.82 / defence 1.32 against Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.84 / defence 1.19, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nantes 38% | Draw 28% | Stade Brestois 29 34%, with Nantes to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nantes 44%, Stade Brestois 29 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nantes's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Stade Brestois 29 arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.89. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Stade Brestois 29 (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.06 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights