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Stade Brestois 29 cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Nantes.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stade Brestois 29 beat Nantes 0-2 at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau, Regular Season - 21, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nantes 1.45 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.20 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Nantes fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Stade Brestois 29 outscored their 1.20 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nantes attack 0.84 / defence 1.03 against Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.89 / defence 1.15, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nantes 40% | Draw 31% | Stade Brestois 29 28%, with Nantes to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Stade Brestois 29 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nantes 46%, Stade Brestois 29 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nantes's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Stade Brestois 29 arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Nantes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward. Stade Brestois 29 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights