🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Nantes and Rennes share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stade de la Beaujoire, Regular Season - 5, as Nantes and Rennes drew 2-2 in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nantes 1.48 xG and Rennes 0.83 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Rennes outscored their 0.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nantes attack 0.75 / defence 0.75 against Rennes attack 0.91 / defence 1.19, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nantes 53% | Draw 26% | Rennes 21%, with Nantes to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nantes 40%, Rennes 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nantes's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Rennes's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nantes 1.03 PPG, Rennes 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Nantes (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights