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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Nantes and Paris Saint Germain share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau, Regular Season - 29, as Nantes and Paris Saint Germain drew 1-1 in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nantes 1.09 xG and Paris Saint Germain 2.19 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Paris Saint Germain landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nantes attack 0.86 / defence 0.89 against Paris Saint Germain attack 1.73 / defence 0.84, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nantes 18% | Draw 20% | Paris Saint Germain 62%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nantes 48%, Paris Saint Germain 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nantes's trading profile (63 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (63 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.43 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Paris Saint Germain (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.63 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights