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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Nantes run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Marseille.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nantes beat Marseille 3-0 at Stade de la Beaujoire, Regular Season - 32, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nantes 1.29 xG and Marseille 1.46 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Nantes beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Marseille landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nantes attack 0.80 / defence 1.22 against Marseille attack 0.92 / defence 1.10, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nantes 32% | Draw 29% | Marseille 40%, with Marseille to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Nantes win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nantes 45%, Marseille 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nantes's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Marseille's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Marseille arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 0.86. Form was overturned, with Nantes winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Nantes (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line. Marseille (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.69 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights