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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Nantes and Lorient share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stade de la Beaujoire, Regular Season - 13, as Nantes and Lorient drew 1-1 in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nantes 1.51 xG and Lorient 0.84 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nantes attack 0.71 / defence 1.34 against Lorient attack 0.52 / defence 1.28, drawn from 46/12 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nantes 53% | Draw 26% | Lorient 21%, with Nantes to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nantes 41%, Lorient 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nantes's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Lorient's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Lorient arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights