🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Nantes defy the odds to beat Lille 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nantes beat Lille 1-0 at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau, Regular Season - 26, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nantes 1.15 xG and Lille 1.31 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Lille landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nantes attack 0.85 / defence 0.98 against Lille attack 0.95 / defence 0.91, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nantes 31% | Draw 29% | Lille 39%, with Lille to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Nantes win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nantes 46%, Lille 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nantes's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Lille's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Lille arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 0.97. Form was overturned, with Nantes winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Nantes (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line. Lille (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights