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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Nantes cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Lens.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nantes beat Lens 3-1 at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau, Regular Season - 23, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nantes 0.91 xG and Lens 1.38 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Nantes beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nantes attack 0.74 / defence 1.06 against Lens attack 0.97 / defence 0.79, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nantes 23% | Draw 30% | Lens 46%, with Lens to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Nantes win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nantes 46%, Lens 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nantes's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Lens's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Lens arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.96. Form was overturned, with Nantes winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Nantes (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm. Lens (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights