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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Nantes edge out Auxerre 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nantes beat Auxerre 1-0 at Stade de la Beaujoire, Regular Season - 3, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nantes 1.46 xG and Auxerre 1.12 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Auxerre landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nantes attack 0.80 / defence 0.86 against Auxerre attack 1.06 / defence 1.16, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Nantes 45% | Draw 26% | Auxerre 29%, with Nantes to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nantes 42%, Auxerre 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nantes's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Auxerre's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nantes 1.00 PPG, Auxerre 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nantes win broke the near-deadlock. Nantes (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Auxerre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.06 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights