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Saint Etienne cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Montpellier.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Saint Etienne beat Montpellier 0-2 at Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98, Regular Season - 26, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Montpellier 2.00 xG and Saint Etienne 1.58 xG, a combined 3.58. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Montpellier fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Montpellier attack 0.84 / defence 1.58 against Saint Etienne attack 0.72 / defence 1.60, drawn from 59/25 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Montpellier 47% | Draw 22% | Saint Etienne 30%, with Montpellier to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Saint Etienne win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Montpellier 58%, Saint Etienne 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Montpellier's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Saint Etienne's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Saint Etienne arrived the stronger side — 1.37 PPG against 0.97. Form held, and they took the win. Montpellier (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights