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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Montpellier and Nice share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98, Regular Season - 15, as Montpellier and Nice drew 2-2 in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Montpellier 1.50 xG and Nice 1.60 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Montpellier attack 0.98 / defence 1.39 against Nice attack 0.91 / defence 1.03, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Montpellier 34% | Draw 27% | Nice 39%, with Nice to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Montpellier 58%, Nice 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Montpellier's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Nice's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Nice arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.04. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Nice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights