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Dominant Lyon run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Montpellier.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lyon beat Montpellier 1-4 at Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98, Regular Season - 22, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Montpellier 1.45 xG and Lyon 1.93 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Lyon outscored their 1.93 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Montpellier attack 0.93 / defence 1.39 against Lyon attack 1.06 / defence 1.00, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Montpellier 27% | Draw 26% | Lyon 47%, with Lyon to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Montpellier 58%, Lyon 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Montpellier's trading profile (55 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Lyon's trading profile (55 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Lyon arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.04. Form held, and they took the win. Montpellier (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lyon (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights