Montpellier 0-2 Le Havre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Le Havre at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Montpellier vs Le Havre encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 28 as Montpellier welcome Le Havre to Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98. Kick-off is set for Sunday 6 April 2025 at 16:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Montpellier stand at 2W 0D 8L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Montpellier, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Montpellier at Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98 this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Le Havre — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Le Havre's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Le Havre's 1.20 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Montpellier's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Montpellier register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Le Havre in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Montpellier have won 1, Le Havre 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2024, ended 0–1 with Le Havre winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Montpellier trading profile (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Le Havre trading profile (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Montpellier 49% versus Le Havre 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Montpellier 56% | Le Havre 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Montpellier 1.42 xG and Le Havre 2.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Montpellier attack 0.735 / defence 1.553 | Le Havre attack 1.131 / defence 1.305. League average goals — home 1.483 / away 1.406. Montpellier's attack strength of 0.735 is below the league average — the 1.42 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Le Havre bring a strong defensive rating of 1.305 — this is suppressing Montpellier's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 61 Montpellier games / 61 Le Havre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Montpellier 21% | Draw 19% | Le Havre 60%. Fair-value odds: Montpellier 4.76 | Draw 5.26 | Le Havre 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Le Havre (60%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.89. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.89 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.42 / 2.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Le Havre as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.89 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 75% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Montpellier 60% | Le Havre 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Montpellier vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98 • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Apr 2025, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Montpellier 21% | Draw 19% | Le Havre 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 69% | xG Montpellier 1.42 / Le Havre 2.47 • Poisson strength factors: Montpellier attack 0.735 / def 1.553 | Le Havre attack 1.131 / def 1.305 | league avg home 1.483 / away 1.406 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Montpellier xG
Expected Goals
2.47
Le Havre xG
69%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Montpellier vs Le Havre kick off?
Montpellier vs Le Havre kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 6 April 2025 at Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98.
What was the final score in Montpellier vs Le Havre?
Montpellier 0 - 2 Le Havre.
Where is Montpellier vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98.
What competition is Montpellier vs Le Havre part of?
Montpellier vs Le Havre is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Montpellier vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Montpellier a 21% chance of winning, Le Havre a 60% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Montpellier vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Montpellier and Le Havre will score (BTTS).
Will Montpellier vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Montpellier and Le Havre?
Record (3 meetings): Montpellier 1W | Draws 1 | Le Havre 1W.
What form are Montpellier and Le Havre in?
Montpellier (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Le Havre (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Montpellier's attack at 0.73x the league average against Le Havre's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Le Havre's attack versus Montpellier's defence, projects 2.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 8.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.1%), 1-3 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Havre Win
21%
4.77
19%
5.38
60%
1.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 3
7.3%
Away win
1 – 1
7.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Montpellier xG
Total xG
3.89
2.47
Le Havre xG
4.77
21%
Home win
5.38
19%
Draw
1.65
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.27
Clean Sheet
8%
11.81
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
2%
56.32
15%
6.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 6.2 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 2.9 | 7.2 | 8.9 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 2.2 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 5.1 | 6.3 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.6 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Montpellier vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are Montpellier and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Montpellier and 2.47 for Le Havre, a combined total of 3.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Montpellier vs Le Havre?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Montpellier's recent record stands at 14W 15D 32L from 61 games, a 0.93 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Montpellier is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Le Havre, meanwhile, have gone 14W 14D 33L across 61 games — 0.92 PPG, with L-W-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Le Havre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Montpellier on 0.93 PPG, Le Havre on 0.92. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Montpellier have managed 6W 11D 13L from 30 games — 0.97 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Le Havre's away record stands at 5W 11D 14L across 30 trips, a 0.87 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Montpellier are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 1.03 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Montpellier
Blended
Le Havre
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Montpellier and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Montpellier have gone 14W 15D 32L in their last 61 games (0.93 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 14W 14D 33L in their last 61 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Montpellier at home or Le Havre away?
Montpellier's home record (0.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Montpellier at home: 0.97 PPG; Le Havre away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Montpellier and Le Havre runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Le Havre have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Montpellier's record when hosting Le Havre specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Montpellier
1
Draws
2
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Montpellier and Le Havre?
From 4 meetings on record, Montpellier have won 1, Le Havre have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Montpellier and Le Havre last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2025, when Montpellier 0-2 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between Montpellier and Le Havre?
Le Havre have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Montpellier are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Montpellier 57%, Le Havre 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Montpellier) and 50% (Le Havre). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Montpellier have failed to score in 33% of games; Le Havre in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Montpellier home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Montpellier play Le Havre?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Montpellier's games and 57% of Le Havre's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Montpellier vs Le Havre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Montpellier's matches and 50% of Le Havre's.
Do Montpellier and Le Havre tend to score early?
Montpellier have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Le Havre in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Le Havre cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Montpellier.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Le Havre beat Montpellier 0-2 at Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98, Regular Season - 28, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Montpellier 1.42 xG and Le Havre 2.47 xG, a combined 3.89. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Montpellier fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Montpellier attack 0.73 / defence 1.55 against Le Havre attack 1.13 / defence 1.30, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Montpellier 21% | Draw 19% | Le Havre 60%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Montpellier 56%, Le Havre 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Montpellier's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Le Havre's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Montpellier 0.93 PPG, Le Havre 0.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Le Havre win broke the near-deadlock. Montpellier (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward. Le Havre (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.