Montpellier 0-1 Estac Troyes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Montpellier at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Montpellier vs Estac Troyes encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Montpellier and Estac Troyes meet at Stade de la Mosson in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 19 January 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Montpellier have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Montpellier, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Montpellier's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Stade de la Mosson this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Estac Troyes (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Estac Troyes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Estac Troyes have gone 2W 1D 6L from 9 away fixtures this term (0.78 PPG). Away from home they average 0.78 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Montpellier's 1.80 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Estac Troyes's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Montpellier lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Montpellier half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Estac Troyes half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 30% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Montpellier 55% versus Estac Troyes 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Montpellier 50% | Estac Troyes 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Montpellier 1.71 xG and Estac Troyes 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Montpellier attack 1.099 / defence 1.012 | Estac Troyes attack 0.707 / defence 1.386. League average goals — home 1.124 / away 1.205. Estac Troyes bring a strong defensive rating of 1.386 — this is suppressing Montpellier's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Montpellier games / 20 Estac Troyes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Montpellier 56% | Draw 27% | Estac Troyes 17%. Fair-value odds: Montpellier 1.79 | Draw 3.70 | Estac Troyes 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Montpellier (56%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Montpellier at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Montpellier 50% | Estac Troyes 44%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Montpellier vs Estac Troyes | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stade de la Mosson • Kick-off: Wednesday 19 Jan 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Montpellier 56% | Draw 27% | Estac Troyes 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 49% | xG Montpellier 1.71 / Estac Troyes 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Montpellier attack 1.099 / def 1.012 | Estac Troyes attack 0.707 / def 1.386 | league avg home 1.124 / away 1.205 • Poisson stance: Montpellier (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Montpellier xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Estac Troyes xG
49%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Montpellier vs Estac Troyes kick off?
Montpellier vs Estac Troyes kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 19 January 2022 at Stade de la Mosson.
What was the final score in Montpellier vs Estac Troyes?
Montpellier 0 - 1 Estac Troyes.
Where is Montpellier vs Estac Troyes being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Mosson.
What competition is Montpellier vs Estac Troyes part of?
Montpellier vs Estac Troyes is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Montpellier vs Estac Troyes?
Our statistical model gives Montpellier a 56% chance of winning, Estac Troyes a 17% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Montpellier the favourite.
Will both teams score in Montpellier vs Estac Troyes?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Montpellier and Estac Troyes will score (BTTS).
Will Montpellier vs Estac Troyes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Montpellier and Estac Troyes?
Record (1 meetings): Montpellier 0W | Draws 1 | Estac Troyes 0W.
What form are Montpellier and Estac Troyes in?
Montpellier (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Estac Troyes (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Montpellier's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Estac Troyes's defensive record (1.39x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.71. Flip it around — Estac Troyes's attack (0.71x) against Montpellier's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 2-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Montpellier Win
56%
1.79
27%
3.73
17%
5.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Montpellier xG
Total xG
2.57
0.86
Estac Troyes xG
1.79
56%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
5.82
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
18%
5.55
Win to Nil
24%
4.22
3%
32.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 11.2 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.6 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.4 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Montpellier vs Estac Troyes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Montpellier and Estac Troyes expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Montpellier and 0.86 for Estac Troyes, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Montpellier vs Estac Troyes?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 20 outings, Montpellier have picked up 1.55 PPG on a 9W 4D 7L record — W-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Montpellier is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Estac Troyes's form line: 4W 5D 11L from 20 games, 0.85 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-L. The sample for Estac Troyes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Montpellier are the form team by 0.70 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Estac Troyes.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Montpellier have posted 2.22 PPG from 9 outings (6W 2D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.55 PPG overall — Montpellier are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Estac Troyes have gone 2W 1D 6L from 9 away games — 0.78 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Montpellier come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Montpellier are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Estac Troyes are on 0.90 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 20 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Montpellier
Blended
Estac Troyes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Montpellier and Estac Troyes in coming into this match?
Montpellier have gone 9W 4D 7L in their last 20 games (1.55 PPG), while Estac Troyes have gone 4W 5D 11L in their last 20 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Montpellier at home or Estac Troyes away?
Montpellier's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Montpellier at home: 2.22 PPG; Estac Troyes away: 0.78 PPG.
Have Montpellier or Estac Troyes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Montpellier have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Estac Troyes in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Montpellier have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Estac Troyes — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Montpellier
2
Draws
2
Estac Troyes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Montpellier and Estac Troyes?
From 6 meetings on record, Montpellier have won 2, Estac Troyes have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Montpellier and Estac Troyes last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Montpellier 2-2 Estac Troyes.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Montpellier are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Estac Troyes see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Montpellier 44%, Estac Troyes 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Montpellier) and 44% (Estac Troyes).
On the defensive side: Montpellier keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Estac Troyes in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Montpellier home games / Estac Troyes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Montpellier play Estac Troyes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Montpellier's recent matches and 44% of Estac Troyes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Montpellier vs Estac Troyes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Montpellier's recent games and 44% of Estac Troyes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Montpellier and Estac Troyes tend to score early?
Montpellier have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Estac Troyes in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Estac Troyes defy the odds to beat Montpellier 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estac Troyes beat Montpellier 0-1 at Stade de la Mosson, Regular Season - 20, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Montpellier 1.71 xG and Estac Troyes 0.86 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Montpellier fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Montpellier attack 1.10 / defence 1.01 against Estac Troyes attack 0.71 / defence 1.39, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Montpellier 56% | Draw 27% | Estac Troyes 17%, with Montpellier to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Estac Troyes win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Montpellier 50%, Estac Troyes 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Montpellier's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Estac Troyes's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Montpellier arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.85. Form was overturned, with Estac Troyes winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Montpellier (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.78 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.