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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Monaco edge out Toulouse 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Monaco beat Toulouse 1-0 at Stade Louis II, Regular Season - 9, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Monaco 1.82 xG and Toulouse 1.43 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Monaco fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Toulouse landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monaco attack 1.28 / defence 1.10 against Toulouse attack 0.99 / defence 0.84, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Monaco 47% | Draw 23% | Toulouse 30%, with Monaco to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monaco 67%, Toulouse 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Monaco's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Toulouse's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Monaco arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.31. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Monaco (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Toulouse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights