🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Monaco edge out Rennes 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Monaco beat Rennes 3-2 at Stade Louis-II, Regular Season - 19, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Monaco 1.92 xG and Rennes 1.12 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Monaco beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Rennes outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monaco attack 1.09 / defence 1.04 against Rennes attack 0.84 / defence 1.17, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Monaco 54% | Draw 27% | Rennes 19%, with Monaco to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monaco 62%, Rennes 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Monaco's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Rennes's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Monaco arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.21. Form held, and they took the win. Monaco (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.64 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rennes (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights