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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Monaco and Nice share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Monaco and Nice finished level at 2-2 at Stade Louis II, Regular Season - 7, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Monaco 3.15 xG and Nice 1.30 xG, a combined 4.45. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Monaco fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monaco attack 1.48 / defence 1.09 against Nice attack 0.99 / defence 1.34, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Monaco 74% | Draw 14% | Nice 12%, with Monaco to win its most likely call at 74%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 82%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 94% and landed. Over 3.5 was 65% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monaco 68%, Nice 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Monaco's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Nice's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Monaco 1.82 PPG, Nice 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Monaco (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights