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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 7

Kick-off

Sun 5 Oct 2025

16:15

Venue

Stade Louis II

Competition

Ligue 1

France

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Monaco Win

74%

Monaco

1.35

14%

Draw

7.28

12%

Nice

8.10

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

3 – 1

7.9%

Home win

Most likely

2 – 1

7.5%

Home win

4 – 1

6.2%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

3.15

Monaco xG

Total xG

4.45

1.30

Nice xG

74%
14%
12%
MonacoDrawNice

1.35

74%

Home win

7.28

14%

Draw

8.10

12%

Away win

Goals Markets

94%

Over 1.5

1.06

6%

Under 1.5

16.67

82%

Over 2.5

1.22

18%

Under 2.5

5.56

65%

Over 3.5

1.54

35%

Under 3.5

2.86

46%

Over 4.5

2.17

54%

Under 4.5

1.85

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

70%

BTTS Yes

1.44

30%

BTTS No

3.29

Clean Sheet

27%

Monaco

3.67

4%

Nice

23.43

Win to Nil

20%

Monaco

4.96

1%

Nice

189.87

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 1.2 1.5 1.0 0.4 0.1
1 3.7 4.8 3.1 1.3 0.4 0.1
2 5.8 7.5 4.9 2.1 0.7 0.2
3 6.1 7.9 5.1 2.2 0.7 0.2
4 4.8 6.2 4.1 1.8 0.6 0.1
5 3.0 3.9 2.6 1.1 0.4 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 3.154
λ Away (xG) 1.300
Total xG 4.454
League avg home goals 1.590
League avg away goals 1.202
Monaco attack strength 1.475
Monaco defence strength 1.091
Nice attack strength 0.991
Nice defence strength 1.344
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 40 / 40