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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Monaco edge out Nice 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Monaco beat Nice 2-1 at Stade Louis-II, Regular Season - 27, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Monaco 2.51 xG and Nice 1.56 xG, a combined 4.07. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monaco attack 1.58 / defence 0.97 against Nice attack 1.15 / defence 1.05, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Monaco 58% | Draw 19% | Nice 23%, with Monaco to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 58% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monaco 63%, Nice 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Monaco's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Nice's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Monaco 1.90 PPG, Nice 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Monaco win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights