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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Monaco run riot with a 7-1 hammering of Nantes.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Monaco beat Nantes 7-1 at Stade Louis-II, Regular Season - 22, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Monaco 2.04 xG and Nantes 1.38 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 7-1 for 8 actual goals. Monaco beat their projection by 5.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monaco attack 1.27 / defence 1.12 against Nantes attack 0.94 / defence 1.05, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Monaco 51% | Draw 26% | Nantes 24%, with Monaco to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monaco 64%, Nantes 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Monaco's trading profile (55 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Nantes's trading profile (55 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Monaco arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Monaco (home/away splits) scored 7 against a 1.82 average — above their attacking norm. Nantes (home/away splits) shipped 7 against a 1.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights