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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Lyon cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Monaco.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lyon beat Monaco 1-3 at Stade Louis II, Regular Season - 17, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Monaco 1.46 xG and Lyon 1.06 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Lyon outscored their 1.06 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monaco attack 1.04 / defence 1.05 against Lyon attack 0.87 / defence 0.88, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Monaco 46% | Draw 26% | Lyon 27%, with Monaco to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Lyon win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monaco 62%, Lyon 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Monaco's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Lyon's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Monaco 1.68 PPG, Lyon 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lyon win broke the near-deadlock. Monaco (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.16 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lyon (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights