🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Lorient cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Monaco.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lorient beat Monaco 1-3 at Stade Louis II, Regular Season - 18, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Monaco 1.73 xG and Lorient 0.80 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Lorient outscored their 0.80 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monaco attack 1.02 / defence 1.19 against Lorient attack 0.57 / defence 1.09, drawn from 51/17 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Monaco 59% | Draw 23% | Lorient 17%, with Monaco to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Lorient win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monaco 63%, Lorient 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Monaco's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Lorient's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Monaco 1.65 PPG, Lorient 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lorient win broke the near-deadlock. Monaco (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.16 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lorient (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.84 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights