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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Monaco cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Le Havre.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Monaco beat Le Havre 3-1 at Stade Louis II, Regular Season - 1, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Monaco 1.90 xG and Le Havre 1.31 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Monaco beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monaco attack 1.16 / defence 0.88 against Le Havre attack 1.12 / defence 1.04, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Monaco 51% | Draw 22% | Le Havre 26%, with Monaco to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monaco 65%, Le Havre 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Monaco's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Le Havre's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Monaco arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Le Havre (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights