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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Monaco and Auxerre share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Monaco and Auxerre finished level at 2-2 at Stade Louis II, Regular Season - 30, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Monaco 1.65 xG and Auxerre 0.96 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Auxerre outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monaco attack 1.20 / defence 0.96 against Auxerre attack 0.84 / defence 0.94, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Monaco 52% | Draw 27% | Auxerre 21%, with Monaco to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monaco 64%, Auxerre 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Monaco's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Auxerre's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Monaco arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Monaco (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Auxerre (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights