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Monaco cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Auxerre.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Monaco beat Auxerre 4-2 at Stade Louis-II, Regular Season - 20, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Monaco 2.43 xG and Auxerre 1.08 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Monaco beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Auxerre outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monaco attack 1.17 / defence 1.08 against Auxerre attack 0.77 / defence 1.40, drawn from 53/19 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Monaco 65% | Draw 21% | Auxerre 14%, with Monaco to win its most likely call at 65%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monaco 62%, Auxerre 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Monaco's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Auxerre's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Monaco 1.91 PPG, Auxerre 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Monaco win broke the near-deadlock. Monaco (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.69 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Auxerre (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights