Monaco 0-1 Angers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Monaco (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Monaco face Angers.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Monaco and Angers meet at Stade Louis-II in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Friday 1 November 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Monaco have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Monaco, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Monaco at Stade Louis-II this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Louis-II.
Angers (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: D L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Angers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Angers have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 1.50 in Monaco's favour (2.30 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Monaco have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 4 meetings, with Angers managing just 0 victories and 0 draws shared.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 May 2023, ended 2–1 with Monaco winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Monaco and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Monaco — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Angers — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monaco 56% versus Angers 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Monaco 60% | Angers 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monaco 1.41 xG and Angers 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monaco attack 0.940 / defence 0.737 | Angers attack 0.732 / defence 0.958. League average goals — home 1.566 / away 1.432. Monaco's defence rating of 0.737 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Monaco games / 9 Angers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Monaco 49% | Draw 34% | Angers 17%. Fair-value odds: Monaco 2.04 | Draw 2.94 | Angers 5.88. Monaco hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Monaco are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Monaco if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.18 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. This conflicts with form data: Monaco 50% | Angers 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monaco vs Angers | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stade Louis-II • Kick-off: Friday 1 Nov 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monaco 49% | Draw 34% | Angers 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Monaco 1.41 / Angers 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Monaco attack 0.940 / def 0.737 | Angers attack 0.732 / def 0.958 | league avg home 1.566 / away 1.432 • Poisson stance: Monaco (49%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Monaco xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Angers xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Monaco vs Angers kick off?
Monaco vs Angers kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 1 November 2024 at Stade Louis-II.
What was the final score in Monaco vs Angers?
Monaco 0 - 1 Angers.
Where is Monaco vs Angers being played?
The match is being played at Stade Louis-II.
What competition is Monaco vs Angers part of?
Monaco vs Angers is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Monaco vs Angers?
Our statistical model gives Monaco a 49% chance of winning, Angers a 17% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Monaco the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monaco vs Angers?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Monaco and Angers will score (BTTS).
Will Monaco vs Angers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Monaco and Angers?
Record (4 meetings): Monaco 4W | Draws 0 | Angers 0W.
What form are Monaco and Angers in?
Monaco (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Angers (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about Monaco vs Angers?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Monaco's attack at 0.94x the league average against Angers's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Angers's attack (0.73x) against Monaco's defence (0.74x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from 43/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.9%), 0-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monaco Win
49%
2.05
34%
2.94
17%
5.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Monaco xG
Total xG
2.18
0.77
Angers xG
2.05
49%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
5.80
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
23%
4.44
4%
23.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 8.7 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.9 | 12.3 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 8.7 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Monaco vs Angers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Monaco and Angers expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Monaco and 0.77 for Angers, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Monaco vs Angers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Monaco come into this having played 43 games, going 26W 9D 8L for 2.02 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-L. The sample for Monaco is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Angers sit at 1.63 PPG from 43 outings (20W 10D 13L), a run that reads D-L-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Angers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.02 PPG for Monaco against 1.63 for Angers. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Monaco's home form reads 12W 5D 4L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.95 PPG return.
Away from home, Angers have taken 1.19 points per game from 21 outings (6W 7D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.63 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Angers's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Monaco come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Monaco are averaging 1.93 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Angers are on 1.47 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Defensively: Monaco have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monaco
Blended
Angers
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Monaco and Angers in coming into this match?
Monaco have gone 26W 9D 8L in their last 43 games (2.02 PPG), while Angers have gone 20W 10D 13L in their last 43 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monaco at home or Angers away?
Monaco's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monaco at home: 1.95 PPG; Angers away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Monaco or Angers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Monaco have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Angers in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Monaco have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Angers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Monaco
1
Draws
1
Angers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Monaco and Angers?
From 8 meetings on record, Monaco have won 6, Angers have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Monaco and Angers last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Monaco 2-0 Angers.
Who has won more matches between Monaco and Angers?
Monaco have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Monaco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monaco 48%, Angers 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Monaco) and 38% (Angers).
On the defensive side: Monaco keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Angers in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monaco home games / Angers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Monaco play Angers?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Monaco's recent matches and 57% of Angers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Monaco vs Angers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Monaco's recent games and 38% of Angers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Monaco and Angers tend to score early?
Monaco have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Angers in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Angers defy the odds to beat Monaco 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Angers beat Monaco 0-1 at Stade Louis-II, Regular Season - 10, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monaco 1.41 xG and Angers 0.77 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Monaco fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monaco attack 0.94 / defence 0.74 against Angers attack 0.73 / defence 0.96, drawn from 43/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Monaco 49% | Draw 34% | Angers 17%, with Monaco to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Angers win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monaco 60%, Angers 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monaco's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Angers's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Monaco 2.02 PPG, Angers 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Angers win broke the near-deadlock. Monaco (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward. Angers (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.