🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Strasbourg edge out Metz 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Strasbourg beat Metz 0-1 at Stade Saint-Symphorien, Regular Season - 1, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Metz 1.19 xG and Strasbourg 1.48 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Metz fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Metz attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Strasbourg attack 0.95 / defence 0.88, drawn from 0/34 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Metz 30% | Draw 26% | Strasbourg 44%, with Strasbourg to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Metz 56%, Strasbourg 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Metz's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Strasbourg's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Metz 1.97 PPG, Strasbourg 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Strasbourg win broke the near-deadlock. Metz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.18 scoring average — below par going forward. Strasbourg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights