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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Lyon run riot with a 2-5 hammering of Metz.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lyon beat Metz 2-5 at Stade Saint-Symphorien, Regular Season - 19, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Metz 1.06 xG and Lyon 1.35 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. Metz beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lyon outscored their 1.35 projection by 3.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Metz attack 0.78 / defence 1.09 against Lyon attack 0.99 / defence 0.91, drawn from 18/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Metz 30% | Draw 27% | Lyon 43%, with Lyon to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Metz 58%, Lyon 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Metz's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Lyon's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Metz 1.52 PPG, Lyon 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lyon win broke the near-deadlock. Metz (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lyon (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights