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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Metz and Angers share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stade Saint-Symphorien, Regular Season - 4, as Metz and Angers drew 1-1 in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Metz 1.02 xG and Angers 1.13 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Metz attack 0.70 / defence 1.09 against Angers attack 0.82 / defence 0.88, drawn from 3/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Metz 33% | Draw 29% | Angers 38%, with Angers to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Metz 57%, Angers 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Metz's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Angers's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Metz arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Metz (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.06 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights