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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Marseille and Toulouse share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Orange Vélodrome, Regular Season - 14, as Marseille and Toulouse drew 2-2 in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Marseille 2.09 xG and Toulouse 1.02 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Toulouse outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Marseille attack 1.60 / defence 0.99 against Toulouse attack 0.86 / defence 0.80, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Marseille 62% | Draw 20% | Toulouse 18%, with Marseille to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Marseille 68%, Toulouse 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Marseille's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Toulouse's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Marseille arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Toulouse (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights