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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Marseille and Strasbourg share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Marseille and Strasbourg finished level at 2-2 at Orange Vélodrome, Regular Season - 22, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Marseille 2.17 xG and Strasbourg 1.41 xG, a combined 3.58. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Marseille attack 1.36 / defence 1.01 against Strasbourg attack 1.19 / defence 1.06, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Marseille 55% | Draw 21% | Strasbourg 24%, with Marseille to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Marseille 67%, Strasbourg 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Marseille's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Strasbourg's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Marseille 1.89 PPG, Strasbourg 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights