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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 22

Kick-off

Sat 14 Feb 2026

16:00

Venue

Orange Vélodrome

Competition

Ligue 1

France

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Marseille Win

55%

Marseille

1.82

21%

Draw

4.87

24%

Strasbourg

4.08

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

2 – 1

9.3%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 1

8.5%

Draw

3 – 1

6.7%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

2.17

Marseille xG

Total xG

3.58

1.41

Strasbourg xG

55%
21%
24%
MarseilleDrawStrasbourg

1.82

55%

Home win

4.87

21%

Draw

4.08

24%

Away win

Goals Markets

87%

Over 1.5

1.15

13%

Under 1.5

7.69

69%

Over 2.5

1.45

31%

Under 2.5

3.23

48%

Over 3.5

2.08

52%

Under 3.5

1.92

29%

Over 4.5

3.45

71%

Under 4.5

1.41

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

67%

BTTS Yes

1.50

33%

BTTS No

3.02

Clean Sheet

25%

Marseille

4.08

11%

Strasbourg

8.77

Win to Nil

13%

Marseille

7.41

3%

Strasbourg

35.78

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 2.8 3.9 2.8 1.3 0.5 0.1
1 6.1 8.5 6.0 2.8 1.0 0.3
2 6.6 9.3 6.5 3.0 1.1 0.3
3 4.8 6.7 4.7 2.2 0.8 0.2
4 2.6 3.6 2.6 1.2 0.4 0.1
5 1.1 1.6 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 2.171
λ Away (xG) 1.405
Total xG 3.576
League avg home goals 1.505
League avg away goals 1.168
Marseille attack strength 1.356
Marseille defence strength 1.009
Strasbourg attack strength 1.193
Strasbourg defence strength 1.064
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 55 / 55