🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Marseille and Strasbourg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Orange Vélodrome, Regular Season - 18, as Marseille and Strasbourg drew 1-1 in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Marseille 2.11 xG and Strasbourg 1.61 xG, a combined 3.72. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Marseille fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Marseille attack 1.21 / defence 1.07 against Strasbourg attack 1.17 / defence 1.15, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Marseille 48% | Draw 24% | Strasbourg 28%, with Marseille to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Marseille 57%, Strasbourg 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Marseille's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Strasbourg's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Marseille arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Marseille (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights