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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Marseille run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Stade Brestois 29.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Marseille beat Stade Brestois 29 4-1 at Orange Vélodrome, Regular Season - 31, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Marseille 2.39 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.53 xG, a combined 3.93. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Marseille beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Marseille attack 1.47 / defence 0.98 against Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.10 / defence 1.11, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Marseille 56% | Draw 20% | Stade Brestois 29 24%, with Marseille to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Marseille 58%, Stade Brestois 29 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Marseille's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Marseille 1.64 PPG, Stade Brestois 29 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Marseille win broke the near-deadlock. Marseille (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Stade Brestois 29 (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights