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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 31

Kick-off

Sun 27 Apr 2025

19:45

Venue

Orange Vélodrome

Competition

Ligue 1

France

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Marseille Win

56%

Marseille

1.77

20%

Draw

5.08

24%

Stade Brestois 29

4.19

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

2 – 1

8.6%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 1

7.2%

Draw

3 – 1

6.9%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

2.39

Marseille xG

Total xG

3.93

1.53

Stade Brestois 29 xG

56%
20%
24%
MarseilleDrawStade Brestois 29

1.77

56%

Home win

5.08

20%

Draw

4.19

24%

Away win

Goals Markets

90%

Over 1.5

1.11

10%

Under 1.5

10.00

75%

Over 2.5

1.33

25%

Under 2.5

4.00

55%

Over 3.5

1.82

45%

Under 3.5

2.22

36%

Over 4.5

2.78

64%

Under 4.5

1.56

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

72%

BTTS Yes

1.40

28%

BTTS No

3.51

Clean Sheet

22%

Marseille

4.64

9%

Stade Brestois 29

10.96

Win to Nil

12%

Marseille

8.22

2%

Stade Brestois 29

45.96

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 2.0 3.0 2.3 1.2 0.5 0.1
1 4.7 7.2 5.5 2.8 1.1 0.3
2 5.6 8.6 6.6 3.4 1.3 0.4
3 4.5 6.9 5.3 2.7 1.0 0.3
4 2.7 4.1 3.2 1.6 0.6 0.2
5 1.3 2.0 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 2.394
λ Away (xG) 1.535
Total xG 3.929
League avg home goals 1.472
League avg away goals 1.423
Marseille attack strength 1.470
Marseille defence strength 0.977
Stade Brestois 29 attack strength 1.104
Stade Brestois 29 defence strength 1.106
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 64 / 64