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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Marseille run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Saint Etienne.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Marseille beat Saint Etienne 5-1 at Orange Vélodrome, Regular Season - 22, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Marseille 2.79 xG and Saint Etienne 1.04 xG, a combined 3.83. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Marseille beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Marseille attack 1.20 / defence 1.06 against Saint Etienne attack 0.75 / defence 1.54, drawn from 55/21 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Marseille 72% | Draw 18% | Saint Etienne 10%, with Marseille to win its most likely call at 72%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Marseille 54%, Saint Etienne 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Marseille's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Saint Etienne's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Marseille 1.69 PPG, Saint Etienne 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Marseille win broke the near-deadlock. Marseille (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.81 average — above their attacking norm. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights