🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Marseille and Nice share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Orange Vélodrome, Regular Season - 31, as Marseille and Nice drew 1-1 in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Marseille 2.02 xG and Nice 1.09 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Marseille fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Marseille attack 1.24 / defence 0.98 against Nice attack 0.85 / defence 1.10, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Marseille 58% | Draw 23% | Nice 19%, with Marseille to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Marseille 66%, Nice 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Marseille's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Nice's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Marseille arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.39. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Marseille (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.44 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights