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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 31

Kick-off

Sun 26 Apr 2026

19:45

Venue

Orange Vélodrome

Competition

Ligue 1

France

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Marseille Win

58%

Marseille

1.73

23%

Draw

4.26

19%

Nice

5.31

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

2 – 1

9.9%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 1

9.8%

Draw

2 – 0

9.1%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

2.02

Marseille xG

Total xG

3.11

1.09

Nice xG

58%
23%
19%
MarseilleDrawNice

1.73

58%

Home win

4.26

23%

Draw

5.31

19%

Away win

Goals Markets

82%

Over 1.5

1.22

18%

Under 1.5

5.56

60%

Over 2.5

1.67

40%

Under 2.5

2.50

38%

Over 3.5

2.63

62%

Under 3.5

1.61

20%

Over 4.5

5.00

80%

Under 4.5

1.25

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

59%

BTTS Yes

1.70

41%

BTTS No

2.42

Clean Sheet

34%

Marseille

2.98

13%

Nice

7.53

Win to Nil

19%

Marseille

5.16

2%

Nice

40.01

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 4.5 4.9 2.7 1.0 0.3 0.1
1 9.0 9.8 5.4 1.9 0.5 0.1
2 9.1 9.9 5.4 2.0 0.5 0.1
3 6.1 6.7 3.6 1.3 0.4 0.1
4 3.1 3.4 1.8 0.7 0.2
5 1.2 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 2.019
λ Away (xG) 1.091
Total xG 3.110
League avg home goals 1.481
League avg away goals 1.309
Marseille attack strength 1.241
Marseille defence strength 0.985
Nice attack strength 0.846
Nice defence strength 1.098
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 64 / 64