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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Nantes cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Marseille.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nantes beat Marseille 0-2 at Orange Vélodrome, Regular Season - 17, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Marseille 2.70 xG and Nantes 0.94 xG, a combined 3.64. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Marseille fell 2.7 short of their projected output. Nantes outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Marseille attack 1.44 / defence 0.94 against Nantes attack 0.84 / defence 1.19, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Marseille 75% | Draw 15% | Nantes 11%, with Marseille to win its most likely call at 75%. Instead the game produced a Nantes win, an outcome the model had rated at just 11% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Marseille 66%, Nantes 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Marseille's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Nantes's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Marseille arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 0.94. Form was overturned, with Nantes winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Marseille (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.60 scoring average — below par going forward. Nantes (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights