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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Marseille cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Nantes.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Marseille beat Nantes 2-0 at Orange Vélodrome, Regular Season - 24, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Marseille 2.70 xG and Nantes 1.24 xG, a combined 3.94. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Nantes landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Marseille attack 1.31 / defence 0.99 against Nantes attack 0.88 / defence 1.32, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Marseille 68% | Draw 18% | Nantes 15%, with Marseille to win its most likely call at 68%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Marseille 56%, Nantes 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Marseille's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Nantes's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Marseille arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Marseille (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. Nantes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights