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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 24

Kick-off

Sun 2 Mar 2025

19:45

Venue

Orange Vélodrome

Competition

Ligue 1

France

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Marseille Win

68%

Marseille

1.48

18%

Draw

5.62

15%

Nantes

6.85

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

2 – 1

8.8%

Home win

Most likely

3 – 1

7.9%

Home win

2 – 0

7.1%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

2.70

Marseille xG

Total xG

3.94

1.24

Nantes xG

68%
18%
15%
MarseilleDrawNantes

1.48

68%

Home win

5.62

18%

Draw

6.85

15%

Away win

Goals Markets

90%

Over 1.5

1.11

10%

Under 1.5

10.00

75%

Over 2.5

1.33

25%

Under 2.5

4.00

55%

Over 3.5

1.82

45%

Under 3.5

2.22

36%

Over 4.5

2.78

64%

Under 4.5

1.56

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

67%

BTTS Yes

1.49

33%

BTTS No

3.02

Clean Sheet

29%

Marseille

3.45

7%

Nantes

14.85

Win to Nil

20%

Marseille

5.10

1%

Nantes

101.78

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 2.0 2.4 1.5 0.6 0.2
1 5.3 6.5 4.0 1.7 0.5 0.1
2 7.1 8.8 5.4 2.2 0.7 0.2
3 6.4 7.9 4.9 2.0 0.6 0.2
4 4.3 5.3 3.3 1.4 0.4 0.1
5 2.3 2.9 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 2.698
λ Away (xG) 1.237
Total xG 3.935
League avg home goals 1.569
League avg away goals 1.412
Marseille attack strength 1.307
Marseille defence strength 0.995
Nantes attack strength 0.881
Nantes defence strength 1.316
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 57 / 57