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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Marseille run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Montpellier.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Marseille beat Montpellier 5-1 at Orange Vélodrome, Regular Season - 30, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Marseille 2.11 xG and Montpellier 0.67 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Marseille beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Marseille attack 1.30 / defence 0.94 against Montpellier attack 0.49 / defence 1.11, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Marseille 71% | Draw 19% | Montpellier 11%, with Marseille to win its most likely call at 71%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Marseille 57%, Montpellier 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Marseille's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Montpellier's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Marseille arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.90. That form edge translated into the three points. Marseille (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.90 average — above their attacking norm. Montpellier (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights