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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Marseille edge out Monaco 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Marseille beat Monaco 1-0 at Orange Vélodrome, Regular Season - 16, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Marseille 3.09 xG and Monaco 1.33 xG, a combined 4.42. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Marseille fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Monaco landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Marseille attack 1.60 / defence 1.06 against Monaco attack 1.08 / defence 1.18, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Marseille 72% | Draw 14% | Monaco 13%, with Marseille to win its most likely call at 72%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 82%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 93% and missed. Over 3.5 was 64% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Marseille 67%, Monaco 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Marseille's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Monaco's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Marseille 1.92 PPG, Monaco 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Marseille win broke the near-deadlock. Marseille (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Monaco (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights