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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 16

Kick-off

Sun 14 Dec 2025

19:45

Venue

Orange Vélodrome

Competition

Ligue 1

France

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Marseille Win

72%

Marseille

1.38

14%

Draw

7.01

13%

Monaco

7.55

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

3 – 1

7.9%

Home win

Most likely

2 – 1

7.7%

Home win

4 – 1

6.1%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

3.09

Marseille xG

Total xG

4.42

1.33

Monaco xG

72%
14%
13%
MarseilleDrawMonaco

1.38

72%

Home win

7.01

14%

Draw

7.55

13%

Away win

Goals Markets

93%

Over 1.5

1.08

7%

Under 1.5

14.29

82%

Over 2.5

1.22

18%

Under 2.5

5.56

64%

Over 3.5

1.56

36%

Under 3.5

2.78

45%

Over 4.5

2.22

55%

Under 4.5

1.82

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

70%

BTTS Yes

1.43

30%

BTTS No

3.35

Clean Sheet

27%

Marseille

3.77

5%

Monaco

21.91

Win to Nil

19%

Marseille

5.21

1%

Monaco

165.37

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 1.2 1.6 1.1 0.5 0.2
1 3.7 5.0 3.3 1.5 0.5 0.1
2 5.8 7.7 5.1 2.2 0.7 0.2
3 5.9 7.9 5.2 2.3 0.8 0.2
4 4.6 6.1 4.0 1.8 0.6 0.2
5 2.8 3.8 2.5 1.1 0.4 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 3.087
λ Away (xG) 1.328
Total xG 4.415
League avg home goals 1.641
League avg away goals 1.159
Marseille attack strength 1.599
Marseille defence strength 1.057
Monaco attack strength 1.084
Monaco defence strength 1.177
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 49 / 49